Blue Wave, Blue Tide, and a Thin Red Line: Politics, COVID, and the Future
Equity market returns are tightly tied to the economy. After all, companies largely represent the economy by means of providing jobs, producing goods for consumers and government, and buying the goods of other companies. If one has a good sense of how the economy will do, she can often accurately forecast the future returns of
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MSBA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO This quarter I have had some client questions about the “shape of the recovery.” That is, many are wondering what the economic recovery will ultimately look like, and by corollary what stock markets might look like. To begin such a discussion, it is
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MSBA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO These are forceful and huge steps. The Fed is doing whatever it takes. Mark Sobel, former U.S. Treasury official In this note, I provide an update on financial markets and the economy, an overview of some of the important features of the new
1st Quarter 2020: The End of a Bull Market and the Beginning of a Pandemic
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MSBA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO This past Thursday (March 12th) marked the end of the longest bull market, at least by some measures. Stock markets fell 25-30% from previous peaks in February. Interestingly, many of the best returns of the stock market occur after the worst ones. Indeed,
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MSBA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO Forget not your past, for in the future it may help you grow. J M Barrie As they say, hindsight is 20/20. So it is that a look to the past two decades can prove helpful, as we are already 20 years into
3rd Quarter 2019: On the Wisdom and Folly of Crowds
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MSBA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO With most things, the average is mediocrity. With decision making, it’s often excellence. You could say it’s as if we’ve been programmed to be collectively smart. The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki The ‘wisdom of the crowds’ is the most ridiculous statement
2nd Quarter 2019: Trade Wars Redux: A Short History and a Look to the Future
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MS, CFP®, ChFC, CLU Chief Strategist and CIO “Protectionism does not produce wealth, and free trade and economic openness are ultimately in everyone’s interest” Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century “[the capitalist class] has resolved personal worth into exchange value, and in place of the numberless indefeasible chartered freedoms, has
Dylan B. Minor PhD, MS, CFP®, ChFC, CLU, Chief Strategist and CEO Stock investments had a dreadful 4th quarter in 2018; most markets entered a bear market (i.e., a fall of 20% or more from peak to trough). What were we all thinking and feeling on Christmas Eve, around the time markets were bottoming out?
“Take courage, my heart: you have been through worse than this.” Homer, Odyssey 20:18 What just happened this past quarter of 2018? During the last quarter of 2018 many stock markets succumbed to the dreaded bear market, falling in value from their previous peak by at least 20%. Large US stocks experienced a roughly 19.5%
3rd Quarter 2018: When Markets Fall: Trick or Treat?
When markets fall it can be scary. Maybe a bit like a haunted house during Halloween? You know it should end up ok in the end; but the way through is nonetheless unnerving, possibly very unnerving. Perhaps you won’t even want to see your way to the end? In this quarterly commentary, I share what